Sheriff Bensley won big in the Republican sheriff primary. That’s how many people think they won’t be impacted by his failed leadership, or how many people did not have access to the message put forth by his challenger. Some of these voters are going to learn the hard way in the next four years.
Second, digging into the data, we get an insight of what is to come in November:
In the election yesterday, in Grand Traverse County, 11,230 ballots were cast for Gary Peters. 14,991 ballots were cast for John James. That is a 43-57% split in John James’ favor.
Compare that to the 2016 Presidential election. In Grand Traverse County, the election split was 20,965 votes for Clinton (40%) to Trump’s 27,413 votes (52.73%). In other words, John James got an even higher percent of votes cast than Trump did when he won in 2016.
To truly compare the numbers, we need to know how the presidential primary looked in 2016. In that election, 17,423 (58%) of the votes were cast in the Republican presidential primary, and 12,479 (42%) of the total votes cast were in the Democrat presidential primary. That is almost identical to what happened yesterday with James and Peters.
Clinton went on to do slightly worse in the general election than the democrats did (in terms of total ballots cast vs. the Republicans) in the primary election.
The election yesterday was nearly identical in percentages to the primary held before the 2016 election. And that’s even accounting for the fact that absentee ballots were overwhelmingly democrat. Without the surge in absentee ballots, it would have been a blowout for the Republicans yesterday (again in terms of total votes cast).
So. I predict that Trump will win in November, in Grand Traverse County and in the United States. John James may even pick off Gary Peters.
Sadly, it looks like we’re stuck with another four more years of Sheriff Bensley. That means it’s up to County Commissioners to hold him accountable and do the job he isn’t willing to do.